Two Minute Take: June 2024

An Inman News article* on June 24 provides a pretty clear summary of where the national real estate market stands:

A weaker-than-expected spring has prompted Fannie Mae economists to cut their forecast for 2024 home sales, to the point where it’s now looking like this year will hardly be better than last year.

“This was somewhat weaker than we had anticipated, and recent purchase mortgage application data also point to near-term weakness,” Fannie Mae economists said in commentary accompanying their latest forecast. “As such, we have downwardly revised our existing home sales outlook and now project 2024 existing sales to total 4.15 million (previously 4.20 million). This now represents only a minor increase of 1.5 percent from 2023 total year existing sales.”

Looking at our local sales data from this past May, compared to May of 2023, several points corroborate this overall forecast:

* The number of sold homes did increase by 8.6%, but the number of new listings increased by 28.8%.  Last May we listed 371 homes and sold 325 - meaning a total increase in inventory of 46 homes.  This past May we listed 478 homes and sold 353 - for a total increase in inventory of 125 homes.  That’s almost 3 times as many as last year.

* Also, the time it takes a home to sell has nearly doubled - from 18 days to 31 days.  This is no cause for alarm - it indicates our market is moving more into a balanced range.  It is important, however, for sellers to reset their expectations accordingly.  It is not necessarily a bad sign if a home is on the market for 2 weeks - or longer.    

While on the topic of setting expectations - I’m telling my seller clients to expect these trends to continue.  We should see a gradual increase in inventory, and longer times on the market, but as the Fannie Mae report above indicates, a relatively flat number of sales.

Historically speaking, it is still a seller’s market, but also a good time to move.  As a buyer, there’s less pressure to make a quick decision, and even if you miss out on a good home, there will likely be more homes in your area and price range to see soon.

*”More listings, lower rates should boost 2025 sales: Fannie Mae” INMAN News, June 24, 2024